Luc Jose A.

"A few hours before a key decision from the Federal Reserve, traditional markets freeze. In contrast, the crypto market comes to life. While Wall Street holds its breath, Bitcoin traders intensify their long positions, betting on a favorable scenario. This agitation goes beyond mere technical betting. It reflects an offensive strategy in a context of monetary uncertainty. As the Fed prepares to decide on its rates, the crypto market seems to have already taken its position, ready to capitalize on the slightest shift in economic discourse."

While several economic powers consider integrating bitcoin into their reserves, the United Kingdom opts for a strategic break. No national reserve in crypto will come to fruition, the Treasury confirmed at the FT Digital Asset Summit in London. This decision sharply contrasts with the offensive approach of the United States under the Trump administration. What does this choice reveal about the British crypto vision? And what will be the implications for London’s position in the global digital ecosystem?

As the crypto ecosystem evolves amidst regulatory uncertainties and hopes for recovery, Standard Chartered surprises with an ambitious projection: BNB could rise to $2,775 by the end of 2028. This estimate, presented by Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of crypto research, is based on a strong correlation with the performance of Bitcoin and Ether since 2021. As investors look for signs of a new bullish phase, this institutional stance revitalizes Binance's crypto.

European markets began the week without a clear direction, caught between two major uncertainties: the upcoming decisions of central banks and fears of a global trade tightening. On Monday, May 5, the main financial markets show clear caution, illustrated by slightly declining indices and low trading volumes. Indeed, investors are anxiously awaiting the next announcements from the Fed and the Bank of England, in an environment where every monetary or diplomatic signal can shift the trend.

And if a trade war could lead to a nuclear confrontation? The hypothesis seems extreme, until it is put forward by Warren Buffett. Indeed, during the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the investor warned that Donald Trump's economic policies, perceived as aggressive, could fuel global tensions with uncontrollable consequences. An unusual stance, heavy with implications, in an international context already weakened by growing rivalries.

While uncertainty looms over global markets, a clear signal is emerging at the level of bitcoin: on-chain activity is surging. With nearly one million active addresses in 24 hours, a high not seen in six months, attention is shifting back to the fundamentals of the network. BTC, after peaking at $97,000, is oscillating around $94,000. This surge in activity is intriguing: is it a lasting effect or just a fleeting frenzy? Traders are sharpening their analyses and watching for the next impulse.

While the crypto market digests the post-halving calm, a technical setup is quietly attracting attention: the XRP/BTC pair could surge by 30%. Far from a simple bullish scenario, this signal is based on a marked tightening of the Bollinger Bands, often a precursor to sharp movements. For traders, this type of compression is never trivial. It often heralds a resurgence of volatility, in either direction. This time, all indicators are converging towards a possible spike.

As oil prices plummet and demand remains sluggish, OPEC+ surprises by announcing a massive increase in its production starting in June. Eight members of the cartel break with recent caution and reignite uncertainty in an already tense market. Behind this turnaround lies a possible geopolitical and economic turning point, between a strategy of recovery and calculated risk-taking. This decision could reshape global energy balances.

For a long time hesitant towards bitcoin, American universities are beginning to make a discreet but decisive shift. Brown University, a pillar of the Ivy League, has just announced a direct exposure to BlackRock's IBIT ETF. This is a first, revealed in an official filing with the SEC, which could redefine the standards for endowment fund allocation. Why this movement now? What amounts are at stake? And what does this strong signal sent by an academic institution in the midst of a reshaping crypto market reveal?

As the symbolic threshold of 100,000 dollars approaches, Bitcoin enters a turbulent zone. Behind the spectacular rise, long-term holders are recording unrealized gains of nearly 350%, a level historically associated with massive profit-taking. This critical signal comes as the market remains vulnerable, hindered by ongoing technical tensions and a demand that struggles to keep pace with potential supply.

The dollar has slowed down, but global markets are holding their breath. After three weeks of rising, the greenback is losing ground, driven by a more robust employment report than expected. However, tensions persist: a resilient growth, stagnant rates, and ongoing tariff uncertainties. Cryptos are not exempt from this monetary ballet. For crypto traders, every fluctuation of the dollar redraws the risk map, shifts the boundary of volatility, and reshapes liquidity expectations.

The countdown has begun. Indeed, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high much sooner than we imagine. A recent analysis by Timothy Peterson, a recognized economist in the Bitcoin network, predicts a surge to $135,000 within the next 100 days. The origin of this projection: the drop in the VIX index, a symbol of a renewed appetite for risk, and an aligned macroeconomic context. This could reignite the bullish ambitions of a market in search of solid catalysts.

What if the markets were following a tempo that escapes economic logic? While the U.S. GDP is declining, the S&P 500 is rebounding after a sharp drop of nearly 20%. This unexpected turnaround, fueled by contradictory signals, intrigues even in trading rooms. Indeed, at BNP Paribas, strategists are wondering: does this sudden correction fit into a global tradition? To understand it, they delve back into a century of stock market crash history.